时间：2023年5月29日（星期一）14:00-15:00
地点：经管大楼A楼 四楼第二会议室报告厅
主题：地方政府债务扩张、杠杆率监管压力与影子银行（Local Government Debt Expansion, Leverage Ratio Regulatory Pressure and Shadow Banking）
主讲人：赵旭霞 （beat365中国官方网站）
简介：赵旭霞，beat365中国官方网站讲师，上海财经大学经济学博士。主要研究领域为宏观经济学、经济转型和财政金融政策研究。在《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》、《财贸经济》等学术期刊发表论文。
摘要：本文从地方政府债务扩张的角度考察了我国影子银行形成的内在机理。首先，基于多部门DSGE模型框架剖析了地方政府债务扩张对影子银行的影响及作用机制，数值模拟结果显示，地方政府债务扩张会诱使银行更多地从事影子银行业务，且银行面临的杠杆率监管压力是地方政府债务扩张诱使影子银行规模增加的重要内因。然后，本文利用2008—2018年中国178家商业银行非平衡面板数据，对理论研究结论进行实证检验。经验结果显示，地方政府债务扩张会造成影子银行规模增加，且该结论在克服内生性问题以及进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步地，机制检验结果发现，杠杆率监管压力是地方政府债务扩张影响影子银行的重要作用机制。本文认为政策当局需充分认识地方政府债务扩张可能引致的跨部门风险，并明确影子银行的市场化选择机制，加强财政与金融政策之间的协同配合，以从根本上严防财政金融风险交织传染。
This paper examines the underlying mechanism of shadow banking formation in China from the perspective of local government debt expansion. First, the impact of local government debt expansion on shadow banking and its mechanism of action are dissected based on a multisectoral DSGE model framework, and the numerical simulation results show that local government debt expansion induces banks to engage in more shadow banking, and the regulatory pressure on leverage faced by banks is an important endogenous factor for the increase in the size of shadow banking induced by local government debt expansion. Then, this paper empirically tests the theoretical findings using unbalanced panel data of 178 commercial banks in China from 2008-2018. The empirical results show that local government debt expansion causes an increase in the size of shadow banking, and the finding holds after overcoming the endogeneity problem and a series of robustness tests. Further, the results of the mechanism test find that regulatory pressure on leverage is an important mechanism through which local government debt expansion affects shadow banking. This paper argues that policy authorities need to fully understand the potential cross-sectoral risks arising from local government debt expansion, clarify the market-based selection mechanism of shadow banking, and strengthen the synergy between fiscal and financial policies in order to fundamentally prevent the intertwined transmission of fiscal and financial risks.
